tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post1552196694027448134..comments2024-03-18T07:59:05.430-05:00Comments on The Grumpy Economist: PredictionsJohn H. Cochranehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comBlogger65125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-39531513275648214882012-11-09T17:13:17.790-06:002012-11-09T17:13:17.790-06:00Couldn't agree more.
Unfortunately, most of t...Couldn't agree more.<br /><br />Unfortunately, most of the public believes that the Democrats, the media and the academy are right: top-down planning works best, and the economy is a zero-sum game.<br /><br />This leads them to punish Republicans for helping them.<br /><br />So let the public have it good and hard. Either we'll sail into the nirvana of social democratic utopia, or crash on the rocks of recession, inflation and bankruptcy. At least this time the public shouldn't have any trouble identifying which party's policies were in effect (and responsible).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-57200939381905261212012-11-09T17:03:17.240-06:002012-11-09T17:03:17.240-06:00“Recovery is a bit natural, no matter how much san...“Recovery is a bit natural, no matter how much sand the government puts in the gears. So, sclerotic but positive growth is the baseline.”<br /><br />This seems very optimistic, particularly considering the negative regulatory, tax and spending developments that are scheduled to occur over the next few years. For example, as part of Obamacare, a new 3.9% surtax on all investment income in excess of $250K (or all investment income if AGI is greater than $250K) will go into effect on January 1, 2013. This will be accompanied by a companion surtax of 0.9% on earned income over $250K. Neither of these surtaxes have anything to do with the so-called Bush tax cuts and will not be rescinded as part of negotiations to avoid the fiscal cliff.<br /><br />Indeed, it is very possible that the only reason that we have experienced any growth over the past two years has been due to the efforts of the Republican House to delay or stall potentially anti-growth measures — efforts for which the Republicans were punished at the ballot box.<br /><br />Instead of playing for an economic tie and a political loss, the Republican should instead find a way to “capitulate” on the Democrats' most egregious (yet popular) anti-growth measures. Or, in the words of H. L. Mencken, they should give the public the democracy it wants “good and hard.”<br /><br />The muddled outcome on November 6th reflects muddled responsibility for the economy. By finding a politically savvy way to give the Democrats what they want, responsibility should become crystal clear — and, in 2014, the public can make an informed choice about which path they prefer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-42535601236361078152012-11-09T14:26:53.592-06:002012-11-09T14:26:53.592-06:00Can Obama appoint regulators without Congress?Can Obama appoint regulators without Congress?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-45024248008208755182012-11-09T11:58:41.922-06:002012-11-09T11:58:41.922-06:001st off, it's a false premise that economic pr...1st off, it's a false premise that economic problems in Europe are only due to cuts in government spending. The problems are equally caused by favored interest groups and union thuggery. <br /><br />2nd, please show me the oppressive government cuts you speak of.Econ Master Mannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-22864007287580442032012-11-09T11:16:56.139-06:002012-11-09T11:16:56.139-06:00"For him, Canada is a pasty-white country run..."For him, Canada is a pasty-white country run by conservative troglodytes"<br /><br />Forgive me Professor Cochrane, I can't resist and there is an important point here. <br /><br />Exurban - here is my short take on Canada vs. US:<br />1) Twenty years ago the Canadian conservatives went through what the Republicans are currently going through (substitute Reform Party for Tea Party)<br />2) The Canadian Conservatives have worked hard (and successfully) at bringing ethnic groups into the party. Along the way they have brought the hard right under relative control.<br />3) The current Conservative government of Canada is probably to the left of Obama. In the Canadian context, Obama would be center-right.<br /><br />To be explicit about a point that is implicit in my earlier post: approving the bridge and the pipeline is a small but useful way for Obama to stimulate the American economy without needing Congressional approval and without borrowing. <br /><br />I could of course be completely wrong about all of this.Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-16395062967307492022012-11-09T09:28:28.512-06:002012-11-09T09:28:28.512-06:00"The power to tax resides in the House, and t..."The power to tax resides in the House, and the American public gave the republicans control of that body"<br /><br />Obama doesn't need to pass legislation to raise taxes ... he just has to do nothing for 6 weeks or so. At that point he can push for broad-based taxed cuts (excepting the wealthy), and if House Republicans oppose it, they will wind up in a political mess.JSRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09614849295823728127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-26356897954821997782012-11-09T08:55:04.393-06:002012-11-09T08:55:04.393-06:00Exactly my thought. Should the Repubs hold them of...Exactly my thought. Should the Repubs hold them off they will be vilified in the press as obstructionist. Even a win for the Repubs will a loss for them. If they, and I, are wrong, then the economy will be in full bloom and I will be the happiest man on the planet, and will be the first to say I was wrong. If the "supercharged the fiscal bus" runs its course as I see it, then the Dems better have a good compass because they will find thems in a vast wilderness.<br /><br />wilkyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-53730318730416817112012-11-09T00:34:55.678-06:002012-11-09T00:34:55.678-06:00Exurban - My reasoning goes like this: Obama wants...Exurban - My reasoning goes like this: Obama wants the economy to be stronger by fall 2014, both these projects involve Canadians spending money on infrastructure in the US; the American auto industry really wants the bridge; the Canadian government really wants both projects; there is very little left to do to get the bridge going; if there is going to be environmental pushback on the pipeline, the sooner Obama gets that out of the way the better, the Republicans cannot oppose the pipeline since they just ran a campaign saying it should go ahead.Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-89437421645640596372012-11-08T22:27:47.338-06:002012-11-08T22:27:47.338-06:00Doesn't it matter which unemployment numbers y...Doesn't it matter which unemployment numbers you talk about? The U-3 (what, 7.8% now?)probably won't change much in the near-term, barring a major drop in the economy. If no jobs are created, no change. If jobs are created, then people who have stopped looking (counted in the U-6 number but not U-3) will start looking again, leading to no change in the percentage. Course, overall numbers in that case will improve, but to sell a recovery, people will start having to explain the numbers. Which might lead to uncomfortable questions about the last 3 years of our "recovery".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-12395845253213681502012-11-08T21:49:28.986-06:002012-11-08T21:49:28.986-06:00Don't you mean PBS - television instead of NPR...Don't you mean PBS - television instead of NPR - radio?<br /><br />Also, Big Bird's merchandising revenue is used for stock buybacks timed to coincide with the expiration of stock options held by Oscar, Bert, Ernie, and the rest of the gang.FRestlyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09440916887619001941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-17880654258525829712012-11-08T21:33:54.743-06:002012-11-08T21:33:54.743-06:00John, you should know better than to go on Marxist...John, you should know better than to go on Marxistplace....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-51632826393589844592012-11-08T20:14:19.301-06:002012-11-08T20:14:19.301-06:00How about this scary prediction:
Three of the nine...How about this scary prediction:<br />Three of the nine Supreme Court judges are over 80 years old, and probably won't last past this benighted administration.<br />Imagine America's future with three hard-left socialists added to the Supreme Court.<br />Who needs a Constitution.<br />We have become a people of the Government, by the Government, and for the Government.PacRim Jimhttp://www.pacrimjim.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-1244700446517990382012-11-08T20:02:34.347-06:002012-11-08T20:02:34.347-06:00The Democrats have won:
"There will be no cu...The Democrats have won:<br /><br />"There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always — do not forget this, Winston — always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever."<br />Fat Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09554029467445000453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-59126775554896346672012-11-08T19:44:26.012-06:002012-11-08T19:44:26.012-06:00"2) Obama approves the new international brid...<i>"2) Obama approves the new international bridge at Detroit immediately and the Keystone Pipeline by April."</i><br /><br />Wow, you are some kind of an optimist. I'm reading this from Canada and I'd be thrilled if those predictions came true -- but I'd also be amazed. Why would he approve the bridge? For him, Canada is a pasty-white country run by conservative troglodytes, and their trucks emit greenhouse gases. Why would he approve the pipeline? That would only mean a steady supply of more petroleum from a secure source, helping to drive down prices and make the USA immune to Middle Eastern oil problems. Exactly what the Democrats oppose, no?Exurbannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-5303187468792884072012-11-08T19:32:41.743-06:002012-11-08T19:32:41.743-06:00Personally, I think the regulation explosion we ar...Personally, I think the regulation explosion we are looking at is going to hobble the economy to such an extent that any other negative shock will sent us back into recession. What is coming out of Washington is the equivalent of a trillion dollar tax hike - not the $x trillion over 10 years kind, but $1 T per year. In this context, the Republicans should grudgingly give Obama what he wants and let him hang himself. <br /><br />I've always felt that the long-term decline in GDP growth rates since the 50s is best explained as the gradual choking of the economy by the steadily expanding regulatory state and its various appendages (lobbying, torts, extortion of campaign contributions). What growth we've seen has largely been from various new technologies that flew under the radar long enough to get traction before gradually being dragged down into the mire. Eventually the drag becomes too much (see Detroit for a micro version) and everything stagnates. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-44553225478143998802012-11-08T19:26:48.182-06:002012-11-08T19:26:48.182-06:00From my son at dinner: If the government is subsid...From my son at dinner: If the government is subsidizing NPR, why doesn't the taxpayer get all the merchandising revenue from big bird? John H. Cochranehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-21650669774377141362012-11-08T19:25:55.207-06:002012-11-08T19:25:55.207-06:00I should never forecast...! Seriously, that's ...I should never forecast...! Seriously, that's my conditional mean given that nothing changes. If they raise taxes, especially on investment, and we get a recession exactly like all the European countries that tried it, I get to say I told you so. If Europe goes down the tubes and drags us along I get to say I told you so on that one too. If they raise taxes, add regulations, and we get a Reagan style recovery, then I eat crow. Anyway, "forecast" is the conditional mean, lots of shocks can push it either way. John H. Cochranehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-14125055349599477652012-11-08T19:01:12.713-06:002012-11-08T19:01:12.713-06:00Good insights, John. But let's give APM its du...Good insights, John. But let's give APM its due. Marketplace is produced and distributed by American Public Media, a competitor of NPR.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-49139772070870381482012-11-08T18:52:13.290-06:002012-11-08T18:52:13.290-06:00Frankly I think the smartest thing the Republicans...Frankly I think the smartest thing the Republicans can do is support whatever the Democrats introduce and supercharge the fiscal bus that Obama will drive off the cliff. Of course they should first make it clear that they think it's a terrible idea but that the people have spoken and as Mencken said they should get what they want, good and hard. Make sure that the Democrats own the ruin that will surely come. Fighting them, obstructing them in Congress, only forestalls the inevitable crash. Let the day of fiscal reckoning come sooner, rather than later.autothreadshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12922732992155191413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-70357450568802508522012-11-08T18:40:13.072-06:002012-11-08T18:40:13.072-06:00Seriously, that has been tried before; Think of so...Seriously, that has been tried before; Think of something else.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-41382031835032817682012-11-08T18:24:45.899-06:002012-11-08T18:24:45.899-06:00"Obama has a mandate to increase taxes on the..."Obama has a mandate to increase taxes on the wealthy"<br /><br />To quote James Carville, the only guy with a man-date here is Barry Frank.<br /><br />The power to tax resides in the House, and the American public gave the republicans control of that body. If there was a tax raising mandate, clearly the Democrats would have been given control of the body that is responsible for the task.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16572867918378741273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-53607864228894646002012-11-08T18:21:52.940-06:002012-11-08T18:21:52.940-06:00A little monday morning quarterbacking here, but w...A little monday morning quarterbacking here, but with the market down over a hundred points again today and the bad news coming out of Europe--especially that Germany seems certain to be slipping into recession--the article's projection that we should see continued marginal recovery with matching employment gains seems way optimistic. Apple's twenty percent fall plus the unpredictability of a spectrum of worsening international conditions along with QE3 already having spent its force in record time back-lights a US economy that is frighteningly vulnerable to whichever black swan event or events that my be lurking--unless Bernake's earlier claim to be 100% in control is absolute, or just intended to reassure. We also have to witness a further upward ceiling legislation passage on the national debt by Congress before the end of the year. I'd buckle up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-23578372830001136152012-11-08T17:54:10.774-06:002012-11-08T17:54:10.774-06:00"Obama has a mandate to increase taxes on the..."Obama has a mandate to increase taxes on the wealthy."<br /><br />Huh? Obama won with fewer electoral votes and 10 million fewer popular votes than in 2008. He also ran a very deliberately polarizing campaign, which has left half the country intractably opposed to him (including "yours truly"). <br /><br />That's a pretty pi**-poor "mandate," Bub. <br /><br />As for taxes on the wealth, I'll be more impressed with Obama's puffery when he imposes hefty wealth taxes on Bruce Springsteen, Jay-Z, Katy Perry, Beyonce, and Steven Spielberg.<br /><br />Fat chance of that happening, huh?<br /><br /><br /><br />MarkJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-85701644828648158062012-11-08T14:15:13.505-06:002012-11-08T14:15:13.505-06:00Anonymous - Obama and Romney both agreed during th...Anonymous - Obama and Romney both agreed during the debates that the country was making a fundamental choice. Obama won the Electoral College and the popular vote. Obama has a mandate to increase taxes on the wealthy.<br /><br />I agree that the Republicans could have run a better campaign but the problems with the Republican campaign were both deep and wide and not just limited to the choice of vice president or the incompetence of their pollsters. There should be no finger pointing in the Republican Party because they all, by acts of commission and omission, contributed to losing an election that was winnable (but probably not winnable on the platform they ran on). Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-46225132483684607592012-11-08T09:56:09.470-06:002012-11-08T09:56:09.470-06:00One thing Politicians can be counted on to do is t...One thing Politicians can be counted on to do is to act in their own self-interest to be re-elected. I think some things have changed. The Republicans thought the Senate was in the bag due to the fact that only 10 Republican Seats were up compared to 23 Democrats. Further they thought the Presidency was ripe for recovery with a weak president in a weak economy. They threw everything they could at him along with unprecedented spending and for everything that they expected would happen, they failed and are now aware of their falling behind the 8 ball of emerging demographics that will eschew many of their traditional positions.<br /><br />I think the Republicans have to very serious consider that it's possible they'll lose the House if they don't work with this President and Senate to get the minimal work of this nation done.<br /><br />That doesn't negate all of your very well presented thoughts, but some things have changed and business as usual is no longer as much of an option as the gamble they took failed.Barton Breenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00180708459787178838noreply@blogger.com