tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post4779504915936614079..comments2024-03-28T14:41:03.793-05:00Comments on The Grumpy Economist: Forward Guidance vs. CommitmentJohn H. Cochranehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-16987250832822441272013-06-03T12:37:50.325-05:002013-06-03T12:37:50.325-05:00BTW, the main reason this doesn't sound like t...BTW, the main reason this doesn't sound like the usual Fed babble is that the opinions are coming from the banking representatives, listed at http://federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac.htm, where you can click on the links lower on the page to get the minutes going back to 2011. <br /><br />I haven't read those yet but I think it will be fun* to sift through them using the "retrospectoscope" and compare them to what the FOMC minutes have said during the same period.<br /><br />* That's how pathetic my life is: reading old FAC minutes is "fun".JB McMunnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15468282698533043544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-35966513400157621692013-06-03T11:14:10.879-05:002013-06-03T11:14:10.879-05:00Bloomberg did a FOIA request to get it and it got ...Bloomberg did a FOIA request to get it and it got a smattering of coverage on news sites and blogs. You can see why the FAC didn't want anyone to read it. <br /><br />Due to the success of the FOIA request they have to publish the reports. I doubt we'll see the same level of candor in the future.JB McMunnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15468282698533043544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-20289400585607511132013-06-03T10:47:24.690-05:002013-06-03T10:47:24.690-05:00This is an astonishing document, at least the firs...This is an astonishing document, at least the first few pages that I read. Lending is low entirely because demand is low. No credit constraints, capital constraints, and all the usual frictions in sight. I happen to agree, but such clarity from the Fed is unusual. <br /><br />How did you find the document? I note there is no link to it from the shorter address, <br /><br />http://federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/John H. Cochranehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-71454186911232867862013-06-03T10:13:07.093-05:002013-06-03T10:13:07.093-05:00"the Fed always reserves the freedom to respo..."the Fed always reserves the freedom to respond to the data and hates feeling boxed in by market expectations."<br /><br />Well they must REALLY hate the constraints of the corner they've painted themselves into. Read the last three bullet points of the Federal Advisory Council Meeting May 17, 2013. http://federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac-20130517.pdfJB McMunnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15468282698533043544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-39639702876258653002013-06-03T05:27:30.451-05:002013-06-03T05:27:30.451-05:00I don't see how this would be a failure of mod...I don't see how this would be a failure of models. What models do is tell you what happens under certain conditions. Like what happens when the CB commits to too-low interest rates in the future. Now the FED does not satisfy these conditions. This does not mean the model fails. It says that the model (or better, in this case, the modeling) does not apply in the current situation. When I write down a model how I get wet when it rains, does it mean that the model is wrong when the weather happens to be dry? Of course not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-90200309927730475632013-06-02T21:47:09.251-05:002013-06-02T21:47:09.251-05:00I think you haven't been following the Fed pol...I think you haven't been following the Fed policy very closely. While there is explicit forward guidance on interest rates, there is no such thing for QE. Indeed, Fed officials have made very clear that there is no formal target and that they would stop QE as soon as there was substantial improvement in labor markets - which is roughly what we have now.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-42697269965137253072013-06-02T10:58:16.725-05:002013-06-02T10:58:16.725-05:00How do we explain the recent surge in the Japanese...How do we explain the recent surge in the Japanese economy? It seems that the central bank has escaped the supposed liquidity trap.Joshua Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10313541087554190148noreply@blogger.com