tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post8216286952891141829..comments2024-03-18T07:59:05.430-05:00Comments on The Grumpy Economist: PunditonomicsJohn H. Cochranehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-4164124179634957842014-05-08T16:08:07.120-05:002014-05-08T16:08:07.120-05:00Prof Cohrane : great post; somewhat related -- if ...Prof Cohrane : great post; somewhat related -- if you're interested your colleague Reid Hastie at Booth has done some interesting work in building models of individual expert judgment. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-13349922504151659392014-05-07T20:46:17.940-05:002014-05-07T20:46:17.940-05:00Jeff: Don't worry. When I want your advice, I ...Jeff: Don't worry. When I want your advice, I will send you a handwritten letter asking for it.<br /><br />Just so our genial host, does not forget it, I still would like his thoughts about Piketty.<br /><br />Jeff: Not your thoughts. Such as they are.Fat Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09554029467445000453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-37308686476790994262014-05-06T21:53:59.820-05:002014-05-06T21:53:59.820-05:00I think you've entrenched yourself too deeply ...I think you've entrenched yourself too deeply into tribal politics. I recommend you stop thinking in terms of "Leftists" vs. "Free Marketers" and instead take things issue by issue. Don't pay attention to parties. There's no such thing as a party taking an action, or a party belief. Persons take actions. Persons have beliefs, and they vary independent of partisan politics more often than you think. <br /><br />My abbreviated reason for seeking view points that don't neatly fit into "Free Market" thinking is summarized nicely by Mr. Albert Einstein. <br /><br />"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods."Jefftopiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05005211633248766565noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-9773187830352011522014-05-06T15:09:55.172-05:002014-05-06T15:09:55.172-05:00Jeff: Commenters like you do not make a case for s...Jeff: Commenters like you do not make a case for seeking out leftist viewpoints. Further, in modern America it is impossible to ignore the constant repetition of left-wing propaganda in the mainstream media. <br /><br />Further, it is true that the Democrat party (or at least the Wallaceite wing) has loved redistribution-ism since the the Great Depression of the 1930s. Obama was clearly a redistributionist when he was elected. I would never accuse him of having had an original thought. <br /><br />But, the current level of publicity is determined by a White House desperate to distract the electorate from their own multiple disasters in domestic and foreign policy. The media attention is based on the media's own habit of saying: "Yes, Sir, How high Sir?" when ever the White House says frog.Fat Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09554029467445000453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-30840564607913985172014-05-06T13:31:07.625-05:002014-05-06T13:31:07.625-05:00As a matter of faith and morals, you only listen t...As a matter of faith and morals, you only listen to folk who say what you want to hear? A fascinating philosophy. You should actually consider also subscribing to Supply Side Liberal, it's a great blog for moderates like myself. <br /><br />Anyways, inequality debates started years before the White House ever mentioned it, namely with Occupy, too big to fail, etc. You can even find economic opinion pieces going back to the late 1990's discussing it. You are therefore clearly mistaken here. Jefftopiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05005211633248766565noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-27969908674631815962014-05-05T15:59:43.191-05:002014-05-05T15:59:43.191-05:00Yes, Piketty wrote the book before Obama made it a...Yes, Piketty wrote the book before Obama made it an issue. OTOH, if the White House had not decreed it to be an important issue, the book would be debated in back pages of an obscure journal of economic history.<br /><br />Further, I assert as matter of faith and morals that only the opinions of free market economists are worthwhile. The rest of them are a bunch of partisan hacks.Fat Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09554029467445000453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-31231294476910366642014-05-05T11:29:27.866-05:002014-05-05T11:29:27.866-05:00"Blog readers will have more in mind the many..."Blog readers will have more in mind the many debates over who saw the financial crisis coming or didn't, who called the housing "bubble" or didn't..."<br /><br />"We wrote down models, and test them by whether the models' predictions, in anyone's hands, agrees with the data..."<br /><br />I would add the importance, as stressed by Tetlock, of making these predictions testable. So much of "financial prediction" resembles fortune-telling and palm-reading: it's sufficiently vague that it can accommodate completely different outcomes.<br /><br />Even if you can get testable hypotheses, I suspect you'll run into the same issues of "value adjustments" and arguments about "close call counterfactuals" encountered by Tetlock. <br /><br />Lastly,the Niall Fergusons and Paul Krugmans of the world strike me as prototypical extreme "hedgehogs". I just keep that in mind if I get stuck reading something of theirs...<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-985665635869035992014-05-05T08:23:01.760-05:002014-05-05T08:23:01.760-05:00A compendium of MR links to reviews/thoughts on Pi...A compendium of MR links to reviews/thoughts on Piketty can be found here (note that the page does not have a favorable view of MR's 'crusade', but it's still a useful compilation):<br /><br />http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/tyler-cowens-anti-piketty-crusade.html<br /><br />For what it's worth, Fat Man, I think you have the relationship backwards. Inequality was presumed to be non-issue, and, for better or worse, work from Saez, Piketty et al brought it to the limelight. Obama's talking points are the effect, not the cause. I also hope you aren't suggesting that only the opinions of economists who are "friendly to free markets" are the opinions that matter. Jefftopiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05005211633248766565noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-90258414661780279892014-05-05T01:58:39.662-05:002014-05-05T01:58:39.662-05:00I PREDICT that this essay, accurate as it is, will...I PREDICT that this essay, accurate as it is, will not be well received by many!<br /><br />(Favorite sentence award goes to: "It's interesting that the policy debates, even by ex academics, goes back to such solidly pre-scientific witch-doctor evaluation.")<br />Neal Reynoldsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-78253998979721200532014-05-04T20:19:16.685-05:002014-05-04T20:19:16.685-05:00Often, comparing models to data is subjective. Sup...Often, comparing models to data is subjective. Suppose someone comes along with a statistical relationship between inflation and M1 growth that, over the past 50 years, performs pretty well. Someone else comes along with a qualitative model that is not good at making quantitative predictions, but is able to recognize when we will have a rapidly growing money supply and not much inflation. After how many years of rapid money growth without the usual amount of inflation do we need to say that the first model is not applicable to the current macroeconomy? Are the past 50 years the relevant data or just the past 5 years?Joshua Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10313541087554190148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-12866820974082767032014-05-04T08:04:18.854-05:002014-05-04T08:04:18.854-05:00One of the toughest things about finance is that t...One of the toughest things about finance is that there's a difference between inevitable and imminent. Predicting the correct outcome without the right timing frequently has the same effect as being wrong. The JGB widowmaker trade comes to mind, as well as the people who shorted tech too early in the 90s and capitulated. Meredith Whitney may turn out to be right but if you followed her advice on the timing the outcome was in distinguishable from "wrong".<br /><br />BTW, it was Elaine Garzarelli, Mr Surowhiskey.JB McMunnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15468282698533043544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-29876592759450289442014-05-03T20:35:11.714-05:002014-05-03T20:35:11.714-05:00I still would like your thoughts.I still would like your thoughts.Fat Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09554029467445000453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-55631355515628924862014-05-03T18:35:04.912-05:002014-05-03T18:35:04.912-05:00Marginal revolution is doing a good job of collect...Marginal revolution is doing a good job of collecting all sorts of thoughtful Pikketty reviews. John H. Cochranehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-2336622030611450612014-05-03T18:28:06.781-05:002014-05-03T18:28:06.781-05:00I know this is OT, but a lot of attention is being...I know this is OT, but a lot of attention is being given to the new Pikketty book, largely because of its support for Obama's talking points about the economy. I hope that some economists who are more friendly to free markets, like you, will read it and explain it to the unwashed like me.Fat Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09554029467445000453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-16928739815515544242014-05-03T18:15:42.858-05:002014-05-03T18:15:42.858-05:00If events cannot be consistently predicted it tell...If events cannot be consistently predicted it tells us something about the experts but it also tells us a lot about the nature of the processes that lead to the events. <br /><br />There are some "experts" I would be more likely to trust than others:<br /><br />http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2005/pdf/rajan2005.pdf<br /><br />(Professor Cochrane - my browser is acting up. If this comes up as a double post please eliminate one of the copies. I apologize for any confusion.)Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-5711105183355554072014-05-03T18:11:52.976-05:002014-05-03T18:11:52.976-05:00If events cannot be consistently predicted it tell...If events cannot be consistently predicted it tells us something about the experts but it also tells us a lot about the nature of the processes that lead to the events. <br /><br />There are some "experts" I would be more likely to trust than others:<br /><br />http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2005/pdf/rajan2005.pdfAbsalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-70220774872547081872014-05-03T16:58:29.626-05:002014-05-03T16:58:29.626-05:00I meant that criticizing financial forecasts is to...I meant that criticizing financial forecasts is too easy -- and forecasting financial prices too hard! I clarified that, thanks. John H. Cochranehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-57010759799058904502014-05-03T16:07:45.335-05:002014-05-03T16:07:45.335-05:00I love the Chart. Clearly the Japanese are unique...I love the Chart. Clearly the Japanese are unique in their inability to forecast important demographic and economic variables. I'm confident that the US does not suffer from such lack of skill. :-)<br /><br />Moral of the story? A person confident in his ability to make such forecasts or who quotes such forecasts as authority sufficient to win a debate can, on Bayesian grounds, be largely ignored.Bob Fergusonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-56349460709199022262014-05-03T14:51:38.149-05:002014-05-03T14:51:38.149-05:00Is it really true that finance is too easy? It see...Is it really true that finance is too easy? It seems terribly hard to me. For example, I don't think either Krugman or Ferguson or anyone else for that matter can predict what the US long bond rate will be 12 months from now. But you are surely right that a valid prediction requires a reproducible methodology.Douglas B. Levenehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07916420802096618688noreply@blogger.com