tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post1418545593923644961..comments2024-03-29T07:18:14.271-05:00Comments on The Grumpy Economist: Adam Davidson on ImmigrationJohn H. Cochranehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-11863890845123363442016-07-05T23:00:47.753-05:002016-07-05T23:00:47.753-05:00I understand the line of thinking from people argu...I understand the line of thinking from people arguing that illegal immigration ultimately is bad for the economy but I disagree. The driving force of economic growth from illegal immigrants comes from jobs manufactured by them for other foreigners. Another point to be made is that a major driving force of America's economic growth comes from impulsive or uninformed buying. When you visit another country, you tense to make purchases at prices that you wouldn't normally pay for. It's hard to remember the currency conversions and you can't help but overpay sometimes. This uninformed spending is incredibly important especially when the economy is trying to recover and Locals can't help but focus on saving. The biggest problem I see involves those that send money home to their families but that still isn't enough to negate the positive economic effects.net28573https://www.blogger.com/profile/01327608724153135872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-71409700529313049412015-07-04T16:56:07.208-05:002015-07-04T16:56:07.208-05:00I strongly disagree with you Professor because ill... I strongly disagree with you Professor because illegal immigration creates a influx of unskilled poorly educated people in the United States. This will increase supply of the unskilled labor ( such as farming, service jobs like walmart, and etc) which will make minimum wage jobs more competitive for the poor. Thus, you would be destroying America by making the poor compete with the unskilled illegal immigrants and the poor in America have very few opporunity to transition into other jobs.<br /> What i suggest is that we allow an influx of skilled immigrants that provide GREAT VALUE to the American economy. After the skilled immigrant finish working here for several years they can return to their "mother country" and bring back their highly valued expertise and create even more value for their country.<br /> By allowing illegal immigration in the country you are not understanding the big picture here. The big picture is to increase the welfare of everyone in the world. By allowing illegal immigrations in the United States you are making the poor and uneducated within the United States have fewer resources to work with and illegal immigrants cost even more money to help bring up into economic classes. The thing is illegal immigration doesn't work but, legal immigration can help increase the world GDP and welfare.KiertoDuonghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08907795576755992586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-49684394226042866142015-05-28T13:34:11.761-05:002015-05-28T13:34:11.761-05:00I think that labor economics arguments for immigra...I think that labor economics arguments for immigration do not account for externalities related to the population mobility. Consider a mental experiment: what if there was no borders, none whatsoever, including personal property borders. A world where you can't lock the doors of your house. Anyone can walk into your house just as easily as anyone can travel and stay in your country. Intuitively, you know that this is not going to work.<br /><br />It's not all about labor economics. There are other features of population that make it for a huge difference in quality of life in different countries. Sometimes it takes one hour drive to cross the border to see a stark difference in the wealth and health of populations. The borders are to preserve the features that make good places good. We can't reduce people into units of labor, because people carry with them much more than work skills. They carry a lot of baggage some of it may not be welcome in every place.Argynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06795146291080636497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-76279522495106371272015-04-26T09:44:01.236-05:002015-04-26T09:44:01.236-05:00But your confidence is based on what, exactly?But your confidence is based on what, exactly?Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11691315256618262530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-71152421870870794052015-04-12T15:08:35.991-05:002015-04-12T15:08:35.991-05:00I was wondering if anyone would notice how silly t...I was wondering if anyone would notice how silly this was. Also a red herring. Immigration policy is not about who gets in to the country, that's the tourist visa policy. Immigration policy is about who gets to work in the country! John H. Cochranehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-4534053397878243512015-04-12T13:46:28.191-05:002015-04-12T13:46:28.191-05:00And these should be considered serious arguments? ...And these should be considered serious arguments? Unbelievable!Franco C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/01754002892606203560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-56980607969613091732015-04-08T02:41:52.831-05:002015-04-08T02:41:52.831-05:00Immigration has definitely handled better in the U...Immigration has definitely handled better in the US than Europe, especially Britain, which has had particularly rapid immigration from Eastern Europe in recent years and very high population growth in a what many people already regard as an overly congested country (although sure not comparable yet to much of China, Hong Kong and India). Large amounts of green land which previous generations have fought hard to keep out of the reach of developers now has to make way for housing and freeways. 30-40 story apartment blocs are now becoming very widespread in London, creating new problems. The big problem though is much of this intake has not been desperate refugees from Syria or such like, but economic immigration from Eastern Europe which compete with domestic, especially relatively unskilled workers - not nice in an environment when many already face zero hours contracts and it seems for a large tail of the population, lower than ever real wages.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-74521307076583454852015-04-02T15:56:24.690-05:002015-04-02T15:56:24.690-05:00I think all productivity numbers can have issues. ...I think all productivity numbers can have issues. Even GDP per hour worked obviously only includes people who are actually employed. Think of certain European countries where unemployment tends to be high even in normal times. Assuming the unemployed are disproportionally lesser skilled or educated workers, this could make per hour worked stats look higher simply because the less productive workers are not working at all so they are not part of the calculation. <br /><br />Low wage immigrants in the United States may pull down per capita or per worker averages somewhat, but that doesn't necessarily mean a typical person or household is actually worse off as a result.Zacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-47980475926354100552015-04-02T14:24:05.846-05:002015-04-02T14:24:05.846-05:00Why, if Adam is correct, is there unemployment?Why, if Adam is correct, is there unemployment?Glennnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-34537143415280546862015-04-02T11:16:52.027-05:002015-04-02T11:16:52.027-05:00The more accurate way to measure productivity is G...The more accurate way to measure productivity is GDP per hour worked. Baconbaconhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13511082564082971086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-26954507347311819942015-04-01T12:03:17.699-05:002015-04-01T12:03:17.699-05:00Japan had almost zero immigration, the USA somethi...Japan had almost zero immigration, the USA something like 40 million immigrants. If we take 1989 as a starting point, the very year when the Japanese economy got into trouble, GDP per working age adult is virtually the same in the two countries.GDP per working age mesures productivity right ? http://snbchf.com/global-macro/gdp-growth-per-capita/<br />On the other hand wealth inequality is an order of magnitude larger in America. So adding one and two it seems tha average Japanese is doing better, something that is actually not too difficult to see travelling a bit in America and in Japan..<br />The problem with today global immigration is that it destroys the sense of solidarity among the working class by creating a Babel of ethnicities which fosters distrust among them so that they cannot fight back and this way the top 2% can rule and enrich themeselves at their expenses. You know, things like the 103% of incremental GDP since 2008 that in the USA went to the top 5% of the income distribution...<br />This is why workers all over the world are against immigration and elites in favour. They also think at things like Brooklyn which 30 years ago was full of Italians, Irish and Jews and they are mostly gone now because of immigration and its problems..<br />gzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14615590897074345988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-23729660643012188982015-04-01T12:02:28.460-05:002015-04-01T12:02:28.460-05:00Japan had almost zero immigration, the USA somethi...Japan had almost zero immigration, the USA something like 40 million immigrants. If we take 1989 as a starting point, the very year when the Japanese economy got into trouble, GDP per working age adult is virtually the same in the two countries.GDP per working age mesures productivity right ? http://snbchf.com/global-macro/gdp-growth-per-capita/<br />On the other hand wealth inequality is an order of magnitude larger in America. So adding one and two it seems tha average Japanese is doing better, something that is actually not too difficult to see travelling a bit in America and in Japan..<br />The problem with today global immigration is that it destroys the sense of solidarity among the working class by creating a Babel of ethnicities which fosters distrust among them so that they cannot fight back and this way the top 2% can rule and enrich themeselves at their expenses. You know, things like the 103% of incremental GDP since 2008 that in the USA went to the top 5% of the income distribution...<br />This is why workers all over the world are against immigration and elites in favour. They also think at things like Brooklyn which 30 years ago was full of Italians, Irish and Jews and they are mostly gone now because of immigration and its problems..<br />gzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14615590897074345988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-78727317710702370962015-03-31T16:20:17.275-05:002015-03-31T16:20:17.275-05:00And if enough migrants enter who believe alcohol s...And if enough migrants enter who believe alcohol should be illegal---no more liquor?! Why not? Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-5654872624482597592015-03-31T16:10:40.272-05:002015-03-31T16:10:40.272-05:00Add on: If enough people migrate to the US who bel...Add on: If enough people migrate to the US who believe polygamy should be legal...then eventually that would become the norm and the law. Or perhaps homosexuality would be outlawed...we did say open borders...Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-56044333890121401112015-03-31T15:58:00.930-05:002015-03-31T15:58:00.930-05:00Interesting post. But the resistance to immigratio...Interesting post. But the resistance to immigration may be cultural, not economic.<br />For example, polygamy is legal in the United States, provided you married your wives in a Muslim nation.<br />How many American women would like de facto legalization of polygamy---and what if community norms evolved so that wearing shorts was no longer acceptable in public? <br />Mr. Cochrane, explain to your wife how de facto legalization of polygamy is okay. I'll wait outside on the sidewallk.<br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-67729568942389961042015-03-30T14:21:06.417-05:002015-03-30T14:21:06.417-05:00The debate should be about legal immigration vs il...The debate should be about legal immigration vs illegal aliens. What concerns people is not an orderly flow of immigration each with various skills, but an uncontrolled inflow of mostly low or unskilled illegal aliens. With open borders there will be no check on criminal backgrounds, immunization status or health issues. Also, there is the fairness to legal immigrants, who have been waiting in line legally, to have an illegal alien step to the front of the line. And that greater numbers of illegal aliens may cause a public backlash to reduce the number of legal immigrants.<br /><br />Radically open border suggests something more than a marginal increase in the labor supply as done in the study cited. As an example, it is one thing to say that studies have shown that there is little impact on employment with an increase in the minimum wage and then to propose to increase the minimum wage to $10 per hours. It is another to cite these same studies to conclude increasing the minimum wage to $30 per hour would have little impact. <br /><br />Increasing the supply of oranges still reduces the price of oranges, despite the fact that orange growers have more income. If you increase the labor supply, wages will fall even though you have more income earners and this will especially be true with most of the illegal aliens crossing the board in large numbers that will be concentrated in unskilled or low skilled occupations. <br /><br />The people in the picture represent people who are not going to be in anyway representative of the typical immigrant crossing our border. The picture shows a doctor, surgeon, astronaut, engineer, airline pilot, several scientists, which are very high paying occupations. This will not be a representative sample of immigration with open borders. And look, they are bringing lots of capital equipment with them in this picture. This will not be the case. <br /><br />Which brings me to the capital/labor ratio: an open borders policy will radically lower the capital to labor ratio in the U.S. This item is almost never discussed, but will be the main cause of a plunge in the wages of Americans. Will immigrants from third world nations benefit? Yes. Will total output increase? Yes. Will U.S. wages fall by half? Most likely. With open borders, wages in the U.S. will tend to equalize with world wages as the capital to labor ratio falls to the world average. Native American’s (I don’t mean Indians) wages will fall dramatically, but they can feel good in the knowledge that the world is better off (at their expense).<br /><br />Political considerations should also be considered, such as government policies and annexation of U.S. states, but the economic issues are enough for now.Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-67479018543597685102015-03-30T14:12:40.894-05:002015-03-30T14:12:40.894-05:00"The chief logical mistake we make is somethi..."The chief logical mistake we make is something called the Lump of Labor Fallacy: the erroneous notion that there is only so much work to be done and that no one can get a job without taking one from someone else."<br />-As Sandwichman pointed out, isn't this proof that modern neoclassical economists never stopped believing in Say's Law after all? Also, as Steve Sailer pointed out, Card ignored the crucial role of cocaine in Miami at the time. I have confidence that a permanent increase in the rate of immigration would, ceteris paribus, lower the wage share of national income and increase the natural rate of unemployment.pithomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13997094225496018110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-76536003480708562612015-03-30T10:39:04.223-05:002015-03-30T10:39:04.223-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Vladhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03860973297708178398noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-10430179493442923392015-03-30T10:38:45.072-05:002015-03-30T10:38:45.072-05:00Sadly, unlike in economics, in real life one can&#...Sadly, unlike in economics, in real life one can't just assume ceteris paribus and look at just one side of the problem at hand. Problem of immigration is a multi-layer controversial subject. I am as a first generation immigrant myself can speak from experience. <br /><br />Do the immigrants steal the jobs that otherwise would have gone to the natives? Does the increase of labor supply lower the wages? I doubt it - as does the author - at least in any amount that matters in the big picture. Immigrants from other countries are usually coming from countries with lower standards of life and are eager to take on jobs that the locals might not want to take on. Or wouldn't for a low enough wage for small and medium businesses to survive in a competitive market. <br /><br />There are obvious benefits on a large scale as well. The influx of newly arrived immigrants is like extra water from a melted snow in the spring helping the watermill of the governing body to spin faster and produce more energy. More taxes collected from the extra workers means more funds can be spent on education, roads and other improvements thus increasing the efficiency and productivity of the community as a whole - so that every member can reap the benefits. <br /><br />Adam Smith in his Wealth of Nations stated that specialization and division of labor are imperative to economic growth. With todays global economy, immigration further helps specialization and division of labor on a global scale by providing extra labor where it is needed, paid better and used more efficiently. This allows for more goods produced that are available for global consumption. <br /><br />And as far as the ethical questions of immigration go - this country IS a country of immigrants. People very much like today’s immigrants who were looking for a better life for their families are the ones that built this country. Vladhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03860973297708178398noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-29226620726627682632015-03-30T08:25:38.130-05:002015-03-30T08:25:38.130-05:00Arguing against the “stealing jobs” argument is al...Arguing against the “stealing jobs” argument is almost to be guilty of employing the “straw man” argument. Of course the stealing jobs argument is ridiculous: anyone with half a brain knows that. But having demolished that straw man, to then suggest that one has demolished the main argument against immigration is just no on.<br /><br />For example one good argument for curbing migration to the UK and some other European countries is that those countries are already amongst the most heavily populated in the World.<br /><br />A second argument against allowing immigrants from SOME PARTS of the world in (but not others) is the inferior nature of the culture of those countries. To take the extreme case, does any country really benefit from taking immigrants from the Islamic part of Nigeria where kidnapping schoolgirls and selling them into slavery or forced marriage seems to be not uncommon? And if you allow Muslims into your country, how many Jihadis come with them? <br />Sanjay Mittalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18032814733307421482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-38389816847117054362015-03-30T05:52:37.258-05:002015-03-30T05:52:37.258-05:00People tend to oppose immigration for identity rea...People tend to oppose immigration for identity reasons mainly. <br /><br />A comment though : if Card's experiment observe no short term costs in terms of wages, how to account for the fact 1°) that some migrants might not have any employable skills in the short term and 2°) Card's experiment reflects economic agents' behavior reaction to a temporary shock on labor supply ; what about a more permament one ? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com