tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post2401049588829036282..comments2024-03-28T05:14:02.071-05:00Comments on The Grumpy Economist: Interview and GoodfellowsJohn H. Cochranehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-29320732700920039442020-06-30T10:45:48.067-05:002020-06-30T10:45:48.067-05:00Keep doing these. :D It's great to listen and ...Keep doing these. :D It's great to listen and learn from scholars and professionals.Mykel G. Larsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17128735421035292909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-33622936129303130592020-06-30T08:57:45.130-05:002020-06-30T08:57:45.130-05:00John, I think you are too introspective as regard...John, I think you are too introspective as regards your concerns about human rationality.<br /><br />I'm willing to bet 100:1 that the person who went to a karaoke bar was extremely low risk. Selfish? Yes. Rational? Probably! Very low risk people who are sufficiently selfish are probably rational to take risks--their likelihood of being a super-spreader may be relatively low.<br /><br />I don't think this is an innocuous point, and is consistent with your model. I am willing to bet no 65+ year olds are going to those karaoke bars. <br /><br />You can adjust your rational behavioral model to include a subpopulation that doesn't respond to death rates because of heterogeneous death rates. I expect you could get this phenomenon.<br /><br />The testable implication would be that the death rate should decline severely (old people take fewer risks, as your model predicts). I believe we're seeing exactly this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com