tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post3931456104818315347..comments2024-03-28T09:32:23.535-05:00Comments on The Grumpy Economist: Subways and virusJohn H. Cochranehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-58299388687622151662020-04-21T05:05:41.834-05:002020-04-21T05:05:41.834-05:00I'm not John Cochrane, but I'll offer my b...I'm not John Cochrane, but I'll offer my best guess: probably not any big impact on a city like New York if we have an effective and widely available vaccine within 1 or 2 years.<br /><br />I suppose one wild card even in that scenario is if businesses and workers decide they both like greater levels of work from home. James Gorman, Morgan Stanley's CEO, has made noises in this direction already, talking about seeing a future where Morgan Stanley pays for "much less real estate" because not every worker needs to come into the office every day. A suburban house with space for a nice home office set-up could seem more attractive, and the long commute is only 2 or 3 days per week rather than 5.<br /><br />One tangential consequence I can see is that it kills additional money being spent on light rail and commuter rail projects in Sunbelt cities. The taxes/bonds for these projects can already be fairly contentious in cities like Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Nashville, Charlotte, etc.: there's an organized opposition with meaningful support. I could see associations of the coronavirus pandemic and public transit being enough to push votes the other way in these places where spending a lot of money on light rail is already a dicey political proposition.realisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15859878286157071663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-19558785592342514902020-04-20T17:23:30.071-05:002020-04-20T17:23:30.071-05:00John, a hard to answer question to be sure, but do...John, a hard to answer question to be sure, but do you see any long term shifts away from high density living( e. g. cities) and towards more suburban lifestyle, a la what we saw during the big migration during the 50s, 60s, and 70s?<br /><br />James Carlylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06778250145758547603noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-4374038536666810192020-04-20T17:15:52.537-05:002020-04-20T17:15:52.537-05:00Unless something miraculous happens people are goi...Unless something miraculous happens people are going to start leaving their cages, whether authorized or not. You can't monetize an economy and pressures will build to reopen, ready or not.<br /><br />I'm in the "or not" camp. There's no medication and no vaccine. Everyone is going to get the virus eventually and not everyone will survive. There will also be a surge in rehab hospital demand because quite a few survivors will have some type of chronic impairment.Michael Gorbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05789268342873061299noreply@blogger.com