tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post4882953612476460542..comments2024-03-28T14:41:03.793-05:00Comments on The Grumpy Economist: Ban parties not businessJohn H. Cochranehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-27739832174611014202020-04-28T14:24:17.596-05:002020-04-28T14:24:17.596-05:00It's possible that the emotional reaction IS t...It's possible that the emotional reaction IS the real goal. If it's not, it would imply that they are too stupid to figure out how to achieve their goals. Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07058346408498515868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-51770807718234457602020-04-26T12:54:37.706-05:002020-04-26T12:54:37.706-05:00Lets look at it from a Schumacher ‘Small is Beauti...Lets look at it from a Schumacher ‘Small is Beautiful: A Study of Economics As If People Mattered’ perspective. The ‘thoughtfully structured high value business’ isn’t sustainable unless it has thoughtfully protected its employees from Covid-19. If businesses don’t provide minimal Covid-19 protectives to their employees like masks and gloves to avoid ‘ballistic’ droplets from the air and work surfaces, there won’t eventually be any able-bodied employees left and the potential pool of healthy labor will vanish too. Your supply of healthy workers becomes finite just like your revenue stream. <br />The cleaner at your gym needs the same kit too, and if he/she drops cloths on the floor he/she can’t simply place them back on the next widely accessible and easily visible surface. Upon what (floor) surface were all those comfy gym shoes previously placed beforehand? How did the gym-bunny get to the gym? How did the cleaner get to the gym? Maybe the cleaner was reliant on the closed and confined space of a public transportation service like a bus because he/she couldn’t afford the services offered by the private sector whereas the gym bunny could. Precisely why he jumped into the closed and confined space of an Uber…..For he couldn’t afford the upkeep of a car. But just when and how are both modes of transport cleaned? Who else used the bus? Who else used the Uber? Did they all have gloves and masks? Sure many known infections have taken place indoors at close-contact weddings but at open-air public beach parties too, just not on airplanes, all because of the knowing thus far. <br />If Schumacher lived now, wearing a mask and gloves he’d push for a safely designed and useful Covid-19 contact tracing app from the government. One made readily available and freely accessible. An activities ban list or a total lockdown aren’t required; neither are right in the mid to long-term. We have to stop rising unemployment, bankruptcies, poverty and poor health. But with the right protective gear and a Covid-19 contact-tracing app we can better achieve this.emmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-65788003383080046032020-04-26T03:29:35.219-05:002020-04-26T03:29:35.219-05:00I think Kay's analysis is intriguing, but not ...I think Kay's analysis is intriguing, but not statistically compelling -- and I assume he did not suggest it was. For example, let's remember how self-selected the analysis is. He analyzes SSE's and finds that many meet characteristics (X and Y). He does not look at all other candidate X and Y's which did not result in an SSE. However, one could say that his claim that some forms of social contact do not appear to result in SSE's is more solid.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-38981751950566018752020-04-25T16:49:37.697-05:002020-04-25T16:49:37.697-05:00I am planning my wedding and really wish it repres...I am planning my wedding and really wish it represented "nearly zero GDP" :)Maxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-70225473220064750802020-04-25T16:16:21.169-05:002020-04-25T16:16:21.169-05:00Kay's conclusions about use of large/mass tran...Kay's conclusions about use of large/mass transportation and SSEs doesn't square with Jeffery Harris's analysis of the role that NYC's subway system played in spreading covid-19:<br /><br />https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/04/subways-and-virus.html<br />Phil Rothmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02696673530173254075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-5692811630405993882020-04-25T07:29:32.035-05:002020-04-25T07:29:32.035-05:00Unfortunately it is not clear to that, at least so...Unfortunately it is not clear to that, at least so, people are better at making judgement (as your last sentence applies). Google Lakewood NJ police arrest gatherings. There are way too many examples of gatherings of more than 10 people (and actually the emergency declaration made all weddings, funerals, etc. prohibited). So we have an area which is just over an hour from NYC, had rail to NYC had many people making bad personal choices to attend weddings, funerals and who knows what else.<br /><br />When the NJ order went into affect the STATE had 1,300 cases. Today Lakewood, NJ has 1,000 (which is half of the entire county its located in).<br /><br />A moderate number of people making clearly bad judgement has a major impact.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-34348004690025076962020-04-25T05:00:02.899-05:002020-04-25T05:00:02.899-05:00Maybe, banning is the wrong way to think about it....Maybe, banning is the wrong way to think about it. At least, let people know what kinds of events are likely to lead to spreading: a party with lots of close contact vs. a quiet cubicle farm. Concern for one's own health and safety would lead many to avoid the loud party.<br /><br />Consider AIDS and other STDs. A ban on unprotected sex is unenforceable. But, informing people about its risks can affect a lot of behavior.BChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07116006121660059415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-34653795757997595512020-04-25T04:52:09.135-05:002020-04-25T04:52:09.135-05:00Please lets also not lose sight that all of this c...Please lets also not lose sight that all of this complex science and risk management is single-mindedly focused on infection avoidance – if not at all costs, at quite some cost. But for what? Remember your (John’s) long-standing plea that we focus on isolating those for whom being infected is more likely to cause serious health problems. We must start to coalesce around a view about what the virus’ real "infection consequence" rate is for relevant demographic groups. Notice that I say "infection consequence", because I want to give the virus' breadth of punch all of its due, not just its "fatality rate". Having said that, it is becoming increasingly clear that the infection fatality rate is tiny for those 65 and below -- even in possibly the worse socially-medically managed locality: NYC. How much public health policy should be about trying to interdict the flow of an ever shrinking minimal viral load? Why does this remind me of the War on Terror? (Where at least one could argue that a suitcase nuclear device that sneaks in...) Yet, I am glad that we may be able to coalesce around limiting spread minimization by managing SSE’s, but we should also take "Yes" for an answer on the virus’ effective lethality. Both of this should allow us to accomplish most of what we want in the medium term. And to be sure, this would still entail economic sacrifices. I expect the “suppressionists” (whether politically motivated or not) will seek to expand the universe of “at risk” (and thus “disabled”) to levels that will not allow our labor participation rate to get anywhere close to those in late-2019 any time soon. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-32891282200816487132020-04-24T22:40:09.668-05:002020-04-24T22:40:09.668-05:00Another stupidity of our current policy is that w...Another stupidity of our current policy is that we focus on activities, not people. Someone with a cold is much more likely to be a superspreader than someone with no symptoms. But though we don't allow anybody to hike in the state parks, we allow people with colds, coughs, or even a diagnosed case of covid19 to go freely to pharmacies, grocery stores, and Wal-Mart and do all the sneezing they like. <br /> It should be noted that one way a person can be a superspreader is simply by being a slob, as a large minority of us are. Eric Rasmusenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01609599580545475695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-54280310088411994292020-04-24T16:55:59.590-05:002020-04-24T16:55:59.590-05:00John, I think you overestimate the government'...John, I think you overestimate the government's ability to enforce its lists of banned activities when those activites DONT contribute to GDP. Enforcing a ban on business activites is easy, since most are in the formal sector. But how do you propose the government impose a ban on parties? Short of sending a DEA-like police force around the country, raiding homes and arresting partiers, I can't think of a way. And that possibility frightens me more than either an economic shutdown or an infectious disease.Tuharskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00810165572861247320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-73275419666104191242020-04-24T16:50:52.008-05:002020-04-24T16:50:52.008-05:00Speaking of super spreaders, don't forget the ...Speaking of super spreaders, don't forget the New Rochelle NY Bar Mitzvahs back in March....<br /><br />http://westchester.news12.com/story/41863994/2-rockland-caterers-test-positive-for-coronavirus-had-worked-bar-mitzvah-attended-by-new-rochelle-Bob Hertzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08889826739646491269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-42024777001505409662020-04-24T16:27:27.065-05:002020-04-24T16:27:27.065-05:00Productivity is worthless unless it leads to consu...Productivity is worthless unless it leads to consumption. In fact, the only reason we care at all about productivity is because it enables consumption. <br /><br />Thus, consumption activities are more important than production activities. If we're going to shut down things, production should be the first thing we shut down, because nobody gets any utility from production on the first order. Consumption should be the absolute last thing to ban.Fish Goldsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13864053986442147618noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-77605336558070180332020-04-24T15:31:26.271-05:002020-04-24T15:31:26.271-05:00Irrespective of the negligible contribution to GDP...Irrespective of the negligible contribution to GDP (but what about welfare?), the religious/ritualistic nature of many of these activities is exactly why the government won't--perhaps even can't--ban these activities.Lukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16331707554505768127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-36627789652131677912020-04-24T14:50:39.767-05:002020-04-24T14:50:39.767-05:00I am so disappointed by the tone of the protests i...I am so disappointed by the tone of the protests insisting that the stay-at-home orders are unconstitutional or just plain fake news.<br /><br />Why didn't these protesters show up in face masks, standing 6 ft apart from each other, and just say "Look. We hear you. We can do what it takes to prevent further spread. Looks at us following the rules. Please let us open back up."<br /><br />Instead they went about it in such a way that they are guaranteed to get an emotional reaction that does not end up with them achieving their goals.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03761394148395414349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-61197367859811051172020-04-24T13:20:54.186-05:002020-04-24T13:20:54.186-05:00I suspect people generally get The Pareto 80/20 ru...I suspect people generally get The Pareto 80/20 rule. 20% of drivers cause 80% of accidents. That means we drive defensively, buy insurance and observe traffic rules. Gyms are reopening in Georgia and people are observing the rules of safe distance as a matter of self interest. Other businesses will figure it out. <br /> David Seltzernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-92131064860889214912020-04-24T12:11:43.881-05:002020-04-24T12:11:43.881-05:00Seems like the staple ban of of large gatherings (...Seems like the staple ban of of large gatherings (choose your own limit 10, 50 etc.) would be all you would really need from government. I suspect a natural desire for self-protection , e.g. mask wearing on an airplane or in a store, hand washing gets a significant way toward the remainder. <br /><br />Of course there would be issues about how a "gathering" is defined, but it sounds like something where people are pretty stationary, e.g. a party, a church service or a football game rather visiting Disney World. Ideally this would be where people could make their own judgments about what is likely to be safe-- its not clear the the government is better positioned to make those judgments (very likely the opposite).DWAndersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11912588081258797990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-89249346933309712032020-04-24T11:29:39.476-05:002020-04-24T11:29:39.476-05:00Possible typo: Should 'The challenge is that ...Possible typo: Should 'The challenge is that our regulatory state finds it much harder to shut down business -- at tremendous economic cost -- than birthday parties.' be 'The challenge is that our regulatory state finds it much EASIER to shut down business -- at tremendous economic cost -- than birthday parties.' ?robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04682517711551179057noreply@blogger.com