tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post6054994383628058748..comments2024-03-28T14:41:03.793-05:00Comments on The Grumpy Economist: Bob Shiller's NobelJohn H. Cochranehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-81708461416636165802013-11-03T14:19:50.829-06:002013-11-03T14:19:50.829-06:00What different predictions do the "it's a...What different predictions do the "it's a risk premium" theory and the "it's optimism in the mind" make?<br /><br />They seem the same thing to me: Isn't the former ("it has to be very cheap for me to buy") the visible realisation of the latter ("I feel pessimistic about my ability to reliably make more payments")?<br /><br />Thank you for the clear article!timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12707381996365946983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-66139987221362812362013-10-16T09:17:46.973-05:002013-10-16T09:17:46.973-05:00For anyone else who goes digging into the linked p...For anyone else who goes digging into the linked pdf about <br />"As I've said of the equity premium, knowing what you have and marketing it well matters."<br />the relevant part starts on pg 25 (261).<br /><br />PS. Thanks John for these explanations of the nobel-relevant works of Fama, Hansen, & Shiller. Very informative.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-33988716916272043052013-10-16T09:12:07.567-05:002013-10-16T09:12:07.567-05:00CRSP data on dividends includes all those payments...CRSP data on dividends includes all those payments. And the phenomenon is unchanged if you use earnings or any other cashflow measure; account for repurchases, etc. etc. etc. The fact is so overwhelming that simple fixes won't change it -- high price-x ratios forecast absolutely no increase in x, and high price-x ratios forecast just enough lower long-run returns to fully account for the higher price as a decline in discount rate. John H. Cochranehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-47383558303473461422013-10-16T03:24:08.705-05:002013-10-16T03:24:08.705-05:00I thought a good part of the excess volitality of ...I thought a good part of the excess volitality of stock prices was explained by non-dividend payments to shareholders, such as stock buybacks, cash and stock tender offers, other merger and acquisition compensation. Also, if I remember correctly, the introduction of anti-trust laws starting in the later part of the 19th century increased the volatility of stock prices.Milton Rechthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02488660316957122768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-89499386974245193622013-10-15T22:21:23.103-05:002013-10-15T22:21:23.103-05:00That was quick! Thank youThat was quick! Thank youAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10277727988663047029noreply@blogger.com