tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post994366931276797957..comments2024-03-28T05:14:02.071-05:00Comments on The Grumpy Economist: Regulations and GrowthJohn H. Cochranehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04842601651429471525noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-46503025463028529362016-09-19T04:55:05.486-05:002016-09-19T04:55:05.486-05:00Nice post and I liked the way you explained by usi...Nice post and I liked the way you explained by using graphs. Selectmytutorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18256375389278509256noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-91776062994238104092016-05-14T07:04:28.192-05:002016-05-14T07:04:28.192-05:001. NZ may be friendly for new and small businesses...1. NZ may be friendly for new and small businesses, but once a certain firm size is reached (ca. 12+ employees) things become rather restrictive.<br />2. The RMA is an unprecedented barrier to personal property rights, restrictive on the same order of magnitude as any of the bureaucratic messes and zoning laws in US or UK.<br />3. A small, isolated population, with a pervasive anti-intellectual culture and rest-of-the-world inferiority complex. <br />Meaning: as a market for international trade, NZ is not lucrative; the best and brightest go overseas; Kiwis are righteous in their dismissing of clever but foreign ideas and methods; value cheapness far more than intelligence; and do not face regular comparative reflection with other countries and cultures to see the flaws in their own ways.<br /><br />None of this is captured in the usual social / business metrics.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-57783254287141118482016-05-13T00:32:44.045-05:002016-05-13T00:32:44.045-05:00As a NZer, I'm interested in our position well...As a NZer, I'm interested in our position well off the curve in that graph. Great social capital, poor TFP. Clearly something to think about.PaulLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17880559466808887420noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-57976846086645286152016-05-11T22:18:19.619-05:002016-05-11T22:18:19.619-05:00If real GDP had continued to grow after 1980 at th...If real GDP had continued to grow after 1980 at the 1946-1980 rate, it would have reached $22 trillion in 2012. That's $7 trillion above the BEA estimate for 2012. If regulations adopted after 1980 account for $4 trillion of that lost growth, what accounts for the rest? Non-regulatory inhibitors of growth (e.g., higher payroll taxes, the continuing rise in "social programs")? Underestimation of the positive effects of technology on real GDP (e.g., qualitative improvements in products and services)?Loquitur Veritatemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09206272230792130185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-24205526029639504812016-05-10T10:37:13.396-05:002016-05-10T10:37:13.396-05:00Edit previous post:
Delong's data not Noah...Edit previous post:<br /><br />Delong's data not Noah'sAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-64336995335888419262016-05-10T10:29:46.174-05:002016-05-10T10:29:46.174-05:00John,
Re the confidence intervals and your recent...John,<br /><br />Re the confidence intervals and your recent (controversial) plot in WSJ:<br /><br />Confidence and prediction intervals help a lot and would eliminate much of the confusion stemming from these sorts of regressions and their subsequent conclusions.<br /><br />See for instance in the linked images below your log-linear regression on Ease of Doing Business vs. GDP per Capita, with the 95% CI and 95% PI lines included. (Note that large upside uncertainty associated with the log function is also present here -- I agree that log-linear regression is appropriate with this data snippet however such function choice would be decided a priori in such an example.)<br /><br />The data I've used are from Noah's post and the following plots were generated from quickly modifying his R script. (Also worth noting is that Noah's "refutation" of your regression in testing higher order polynomials is classic case of over-fitting -- they may be reasonably excluded as worse fits by use of adj. R^2 or AIC etc.)<br /><br />http://s32.postimg.org/hqodlzc7p/logscale_GDP.jpg<br />http://s32.postimg.org/ihh3rrel1/linscale_GDP.jpg<br />http://s32.postimg.org/upr5fa7bp/linscale_GDPbig.jpg<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-582368152716771238.post-40652678721420680082016-05-10T09:32:58.513-05:002016-05-10T09:32:58.513-05:00Nothing has stopped sturdy sustainable growth as m...Nothing has stopped sturdy sustainable growth as much as the risk weighted capital requirements for banks that have so distorted the allocation of credit to the real economy<br /><br />http://subprimeregulations.blogspot.com/2016/05/why-was-most-important-obstacle-for.html Per Kurowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14155373607182051840noreply@blogger.com