I did an interview on Covid-19 and economics last week with Carlos Carvalho
who runs the Salem Center for Policy at the McCombs School of Business, UT Austin. Carlos is doing a series of these interviews. I objected that anything on this subject will be out of date in 5 minutes, but Carlos wants to look at broader issues, and also see how well the interviewee's prognostication bears out. We'll see about that. So far, I would score that I underestimated just how much Americans were itching to go to bars and party. (Really, fellow citizens, pub crawling? Are you out of your minds?)
Niall, H.R. and I also did a Goodfellows interview with Hoover's own Condoleezza Rice. This was a really interesting conversation on Russia, China, the place of the US in the world, and inevitably Condi's thoughtful views on race in the US.
John, I think you are too introspective as regards your concerns about human rationality.
I'm willing to bet 100:1 that the person who went to a karaoke bar was extremely low risk. Selfish? Yes. Rational? Probably! Very low risk people who are sufficiently selfish are probably rational to take risks--their likelihood of being a super-spreader may be relatively low.
I don't think this is an innocuous point, and is consistent with your model. I am willing to bet no 65+ year olds are going to those karaoke bars.
You can adjust your rational behavioral model to include a subpopulation that doesn't respond to death rates because of heterogeneous death rates. I expect you could get this phenomenon.
The testable implication would be that the death rate should decline severely (old people take fewer risks, as your model predicts). I believe we're seeing exactly this.
Comments are welcome. Keep it short, polite, and on topic.
Thanks to a few abusers I am now moderating comments. I welcome thoughtful disagreement. I will block comments with insulting or abusive language. I'm also blocking totally inane comments. Try to make some sense. I am much more likely to allow critical comments if you have the honesty and courage to use your real name.
John, I think you are too introspective as regards your concerns about human rationality.
ReplyDeleteI'm willing to bet 100:1 that the person who went to a karaoke bar was extremely low risk. Selfish? Yes. Rational? Probably! Very low risk people who are sufficiently selfish are probably rational to take risks--their likelihood of being a super-spreader may be relatively low.
I don't think this is an innocuous point, and is consistent with your model. I am willing to bet no 65+ year olds are going to those karaoke bars.
You can adjust your rational behavioral model to include a subpopulation that doesn't respond to death rates because of heterogeneous death rates. I expect you could get this phenomenon.
The testable implication would be that the death rate should decline severely (old people take fewer risks, as your model predicts). I believe we're seeing exactly this.
Keep doing these. :D It's great to listen and learn from scholars and professionals.
ReplyDelete