The Grumpy Economist

Why do so many Americans believe crazy things? Maybe not "crazy," but beliefs that wildly get wrong factual costs and benefits, su...

  Having just plugged " portfolios for long-term investors " again, I really should opine on its message about the recent stock ma...

"Portfolios for long-term investors" is published, Review of Finance   26(1), 1-42. (2022). This  standard link works if you have...

We need to be reminded occasionally that nothing matters but long-run growth, and long-run growth all comes from productivity, better knowle...

A Project Syndicate Essay. Before it moves on to climate change, inequality, and racial issues, the Fed should have to think just a little ...

I salute President Biden's nominations for the Federal Reserve Board, especially Sarah Bloom Raskin and Lisa Cook. (Philip Jefferson see...

This is an essay, prepared for the CATO 39th annual monetary policy conference.  It will appear in a CATO book edited by Jim Dorn. This is a...

Two pieces stood out from some weekend internet meandering.  Marginal Revolution  points to an excellent long letter from Dan Wang  on China...

This is part of an ongoing series of essays on inflation.  This one is at Project Syndicate . The next post is somewhat longer and more aca...

Whew. The penultimate draft of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level  is now done, and in the hands of the copy-editors at Princeton. There i...

Google/Youtube's "misinformation" policy.   You may not "contradict... local health authorities' (LHA) or the World H...

I have been emphasizing the Fed's dilemma: If it raises interest rates, that raises the U.S. debt-service costs. 100% debt to GDP means ...

I wrote a short-ish article for the Journal of Economic Perspectives on Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. It tries to summarize the 700 pag...

  This is a short video summarizing papers r<g?  and (better) section 6.4 of Fiscal Theory of the Price Level . Do low interest costs on...

I'm working madly to finish The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level . This is a draft of Chapter 21, on how to think about today's emer...

Bari Weiss asked me to write a short post  for her substack offering some inflation explanations on the occasion of post-Thanksgiving shoppi...

I had a great time at the CATO monetary policy conference  last week. A brief view on why we're having inflation and the chance it will ...

A Convenient Myth : Climate risk and the financial system. At National Review Online.  In an October 21 press release , Janet Yellen — Treas...

The discussion about inflation is pretty confused. There is a lot of confusion about aggregate demand vs. individual demand, aggregate suppl...

This is a follow up to a post on the Stanford faculty petition on free speech. I place my comments here, in a separate post. I want to be su...