The Grumpy Economist

An essay on substack ; interpreting US inflation history via fiscal theory, prepared as comments for a session at the AEA meetings. 

This post is from a set of comments I gave at the NBER Asset Pricing conference in early November at Stanford.   Conference agenda here . M...

  Just in time for the holidays, the perfect stocking stuffer -- if you have really big stockings. 30% discount on Fiscal Theory of the Pric...

Sunday Nov 19 6-7 PM I will be giving the "Association Lecture" at the Southern Economics Association conference  in New Orleans. ...

Today, I'll add an entry to my occasional reviews of interesting academic papers. The paper: " Price Level and Inflation Dynamics...

This post takes up from two previous posts ( part 1 ;   part 2 ), asking just what do we (we economists) really know about how interest ra...

(This post continues part 1 which just looked at the data. Part 3 on theory is here )  When the Fed raises interest rates, how does inflat...

An a recent WSJ oped (which I will post here when 30 days have passed), I criticized the "supply shock" theory of our current inf...

Today I begin a three part series exploring interest rates and inflation. ( Part 2 empirical work, Part 3 theory)  How does the Fed influen...

(Updated to fix numbers.) Fitch is right to downgrade the US. Read the sober report . But there are a few other reasons, or emphasis they mi...

Project Syndicate asked Mike Boskin, Brigitte Granville,  Ken Rogoff and me whether 2% is the right inflation target. See the link for the o...

Economics is about solving lots of little puzzles. At a July 4th party, a super smart friend -- not a macroeconomist -- posed a puzzle I s...

I've been reading a lot of macro lately. In part, I'm just catching up from a few years of book writing. In part,  I want to under...

The videos from the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference are now online here .  See my previous post for a summary of the conference.  The big ...

Friday May 12 we had the annual Hoover monetary policy conference. Hoover twitter stream here .  Conference webpage and schedule here  (upda...

Princeton University Press has a 50% off sale on all books, including the (overpriced, sorry) Fiscal Theory of the Price Level .  The splash...

  A few days ago I gave a short talk on the subject. I was partly inspired by a little comment made at a seminar, roughly "of course we...

At the AEI fiscal theory event last Tuesday Tom Sargent and Eric Leeper made some key points about the current situation, with reference to...

 Two great videos just dropped related to fiscal theory.  The first is an "Uncommon Knowledge" interview with Peter Robinson. We s...

Mark your calendars! February 28th 3:00 PM eastern the AEI's Michael Strain will host a zoom event on Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. ...