The Grumpy Economist

An essay on substack ; interpreting US inflation history via fiscal theory, prepared as comments for a session at the AEA meetings. 

 This is my first post over at Substack. Follow me here  and let me know if it isn't working.  The post is in praise of interest on rese...

This is a second post from a set of comments I gave at the NBER Asset Pricing conference in early November at Stanford.   Conference agenda ...

This post is from a set of comments I gave at the NBER Asset Pricing conference in early November at Stanford.   Conference agenda here . M...

  Just in time for the holidays, the perfect stocking stuffer -- if you have really big stockings. 30% discount on Fiscal Theory of the Pric...

With President Milei's election in Argentina, dollarization is suddenly on the table. I'm for it. Here's why. 

Sunday Nov 19 6-7 PM I will be giving the "Association Lecture" at the Southern Economics Association conference  in New Orleans. ...

Mickey Levy's excellent WSJ oped  leaves some thoughts.  Inflation has fallen, though I still suspect it may get stuck around 3-4%. Bu...

This post takes up from two previous posts ( part 1 ;   part 2 ), asking just what do we (we economists) really know about how interest ra...

(This post continues part 1 which just looked at the data. Part 3 on theory is here )  When the Fed raises interest rates, how does inflat...

An a recent WSJ oped (which I will post here when 30 days have passed), I criticized the "supply shock" theory of our current inf...

(This post is an interlude between history and VARs)  Jesper Rangvid has a great blog post today on different inflation measures.  CPI and ...

Today I begin a three part series exploring interest rates and inflation. ( Part 2 empirical work, Part 3 theory)  How does the Fed influen...

(Updated to fix numbers.) Fitch is right to downgrade the US. Read the sober report . But there are a few other reasons, or emphasis they mi...

Project Syndicate asked Mike Boskin, Brigitte Granville,  Ken Rogoff and me whether 2% is the right inflation target. See the link for the o...

By the standards of mainstream media coverage of technical economics, Peter Coy's coverage of HANK (Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian) m...

Peder Beck-Friis and Richard Clarida at Pimco have a nice blog post on the recent inflation, including the above graph.  I have wondered, ...

Economics is about solving lots of little puzzles. At a July 4th party, a super smart friend -- not a macroeconomist -- posed a puzzle I s...

I've been reading a lot of macro lately. In part, I'm just catching up from a few years of book writing. In part,  I want to under...

I just finished a new draft of " Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates ," which includes some ruminations on inflatio...