Social distance need not mean economic distance.
This is an attempt to put advice to policy maker into one simple sentence. They have shut down the economy telling us not to go to work or businesses to open, except those deemed "essential" which are going on much as before, often with a surprising lack of attention to virus spreading.
The virus spreads socially. It does not care how much GDP you're producing when you're together socially. A birthday party is a virus-spreading disaster. It may give great joy to life, but does not help people pay bills. The key target is the average reproduction rate -- if one person gets it how many does he or she spread it to. The goal of policy is to get that below one without destroying the economy.
So here is my suggestion: Regulate interactions, not where those interactions take place. Reopen the economy with social distance protocols.
In part, this amounts to safety protocols that businesses should incorporate -- all businesses, essential or not. But it applies equally to social interactions. By regulating the nature of interactions, not specific businesses, reopen policies will also be, and be perceived as much fairer, which is going to matter.
The principles are pretty simple.
Large groups should not meet indoors in close quarters. Where groups do have to work together, minimize the number of new people -- keep shifts together, and so forth. Stay 6 feet apart. Wear masks. Sanitize. People who do have to interact a lot, be they emergency room nurses, or grocery cashiers, need extra precautions. Use all the tests we have. If you have a temperature or any symptoms, stay home and don't contact other people.
Write a common sense set of rules for essential and non essential business, and social interactions. Focus on the super spreading activities. Keep it simple so social pressure can monitor, which is more effective than official pressure.
In heaven's name, reopen parks. Allow gardeners and tree trimmers to work -- they work outside, alone, and with masks on. Clamp down every bit on birthday parties as much as on noisy hot indoor bars.
Monday, April 13, 2020
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Who is going to enforce the "six feet distance in the workplace" rule? Enforcing this requires draconian measures.
ReplyDeleteIf the employees are idiots, maybe; for other it should work fine
DeleteProfessor Cochrane mentions "social pressure". Workplaces won't be 100% in enforcing this norm, but a few people emphasizing it in every office (and at every construction worksite, etc.) can do a lot, especially if the boss gets on board.
DeleteFor places with more structured workstations - such as a factory - it can mean changing how a line is set up to put people more than 6 feet apart. That probably does imply some hit to productivity, but it's more productive than having the factory closed.
It might work well if there's no threat of lawsuit due to someine catching it a business that was responsible for enforcement. Maybe sell pandemic insurance like how doctors buy malpractice insurance?
ReplyDeleteHave you been to a grocery store lately? Do you see much common sense on display?
ReplyDeleteThank you for giving an old man ( 80 y.o.on 6/4/20 ) a space to put out there his observations. The nursing homes world wide are "death camps". The c.v. is spread via public transportation w/w., infecting passengers and employees equally. The doctors and nurses w.w. are being sacrificed by the incompetent
ReplyDeletepols and their bureaucracies.The delays in implementing lockdowns w.w. were caused by the pols trying to protect their financial donor's businesses, until the infected number of folks went ballistic. Recall Watergate, and FOLLOW THE MONEY. Ray P
"Wear masks."
ReplyDeleteGood luck with that. Where would one get, say, a surgical mask? In my area some folks have them but most who do seem to be East Asian; possibly they had their fall/winter stock in hand by October or November, well before this became a general issue.
A homemade mask will be rather less effective than a surgical mask, and to be somewhat effective really needs to be assembled with some simple sewing tools/supplies in order to fit semi-properly, especially around the nose. But nowadays lots of people don't have that sort of kit lying around -- it's not 1960 any more. And the places where they could quickly buy some (without running headlong into Amazon embargoes, lengthy shipping delays, and the like) are closed up tight as "nonessential". Catch-22.
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With respect to grocery stores: where I am it depends on seemingly random factors. But in places like NYC population is so dense that the problem is essentially unsolvable. Some grocery chains and/or localities aggravate the problem by shortening store hours, clustering shoppers temporally. Then some will impose "one in one out", which leads to huge lines -- and in turn vastly increases the duration of the relevant interpersonal contacts, from hundreds of milliseconds to hours (it seems likely that transmission is affected by cumulative dose.)
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And yes, public transportation is a cauldron of germs. When I finally had a car after student days, I had 1/3 or 1/4 as many colds as before. It seems highly likely that something similar would hold for the coronavirus.
I have little doubt that transit and overcrowding were key factors in the virus initially exploding silently in NYC. The buses and subways are normally ridiculously overcrowded, so contact with others is much more extensive, close, and sometimes even lengthy, than attending a game at a stadium. (So much for environmentalists who seek to cram and jam everyone into places like NYC in order that wild animals should have vast spaces to roam free.)
"A homemade mask will be rather less effective than a surgical mask"
DeleteIt doesn't need to be 100% effective. The point is to reduce droplet production when a person talks, sneezes, or coughs and combine that with trying to stay 6 feet apart. Almost certainly doesn't *stop* spread, but it reduces it. There's a view that microdroplets expelled when talking are a big issue, and that masks greatly reduce them - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-microdroplets-talking-breathing-spread-covid-19/ . I'd think that also indicates that covering the mouth well is more important a perfect fit around the nose.
As of yesterday, the city in which I live (Austin) has a general requirement to wear something covering nose and mouth when in public places around other people. I went to the grocery store today, and a substantial majority of people were doing so. Not 100%, but those not doing so stood out. Masks of various sorts - not sure how many were homemade - and a lot of bandanas. I personally have repurposed a balaclava to cover my nose and mouth. Tying a scarf around nose and mouth is probably better than nothing.
As for lines outside grocery stores - they aren't ideal, but any store that has a parking lot should have the space for people to remain several feet apart while standing in line. Many stores - including the one I was at today - have marks on the ground for just that purpose.
I agree that NYC has some very tough to solve problems of density, relatively smaller stores, and degree to which people rely on public transportation. It's also an outlier within the U.S. on all of those points.
I know it seems obvious the NYC public transportation has been a major reason for its high rate of disease---and likely is. But has anyone ever been on a Tokyo train/subway? Why has one been a world class disaster and the other more moderate? I don't know.
DeleteI don't know how it is where Professor Cochrane lives but here in Maryland which has a broad lock down, landscape people and tree trimmers are exempted from it.
ReplyDeleteI agree wholeheartedly I would rather be a factory worker at my own machine probably 30 feet away from the next with safety/temp checks etc., than a grocery store cashier, one customer after another. Most office workers can work from home. Let all stores of any kind open that have direct access to the outside. Order and pay online, have items dropped in your trunk.
ReplyDeleteIn Canada, grocery stores have sanitizer, carts are disinfected before each customer, everybody keep 2 meters away, cashiers are protected by shields and bizarrely there is no riot.
ReplyDeleteThe Employment Insurance system who usually treated 7k/day was scaled up to 500k/day within a week and people who register for the emergency help get their first monthly $2000 in 36 hours. There is no mile long queue for food banks. Of course testing and treatment are free.
We have a casualty rate 1/3 of the US.
That’s how we suffer in our social-démocrate hell.
"In Canada, grocery stores have sanitizer, carts are disinfected before each customer, everybody keep 2 meters away, cashiers are protected by shields and bizarrely there is no riot."
DeleteThat's all also true at the grocery store that I go to in the U.S.
Why doesn't anyone mention the most obvious thing here, boosting ventilation? It is crystal clear that poorly-ventilated spaces are the primary vector of spread, alongside close contacts
ReplyDeleteRelevant article about a Japanese study that addresses your point ( https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-microdroplets-talking-breathing-spread-covid-19/ ):
Delete" 'Microdroplets carry many viruses,' says Kazuhiro Tateda, head of the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. 'We produce them when we talk loudly or breathe heavily. People around us inhale them and that’s how the virus spreads. We’re beginning to see this risk now.' ...
But 20 minutes after the cough, the microdroplets were still floating in the air – and had spread through the entire room.
However, when a window was opened, the microdroplets were quickly swept away in the breeze. Any airflow, it seems, will get rid of the super-light particles."
He is referring to state parks in CA. Each and every little one closed.
ReplyDelete"Large groups should not meet indoors in close quarters." - What do you propose for all the sporting events that take place in arenas?
ReplyDeleteSimple. They are banned until further notice. There are going to be activities that simply cannot be made safe while we are vulnerable. What John is proposing is that after new infections mostly die down, we can smartly relax the restrictions with a bit of common sense without causing rho to go above one ...... Imminently sensible but the world seems to be full of two types of people these days. Fools that think they are invulnerable and the paranoid that are paralyzed by fear.
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